As O’Leary wryly comments, the focus of unionist discourse about the economics of Irish unity has shifted dramatically, from stressing the weakness of the southern economy to emphasizing the reliance of its northern equivalent on financial support from the British state: “‘We’d cost you too much’ became the new unionist line, aimed at tax-conscious southerners.” He insists that the southern economy is robust enough to bear the cost of reunification, which is in any case exaggerated in much of the media commentary. The Government of Ireland Act of 1920, the instrument of partition enacted by the Westminster parliament, was the most enduring gerrymander of the last century. With some truculence, Ulster unionists accepted a six-county Northern Ireland rather than one consisting of all nine counties of Ulster. Their local leaders had made a strategic decision. In the words of James Craig, Northern Ireland’s first prime minister, they would secure those counties they could control, and thereby create “a new and impregnable Pale,” behind which loyalists could withdraw and regroup to maintain the union with Great Britain. Their talk of a united Ireland ‘in my lifetime’ is mystical blather,” writes Colm Tóibín. It isn’t – a united Ireland is inevitable. The demographics are moving daily towards it. Catholics are now perhaps in the majority in the province, and most people there favour membership of the European Union over union with Britain. This is the feeling among the better educated – whether Catholic or Protestant, and predominantly among the young. Britain is a declining economy, while the European Union is a world superpower moving onward and upward. Gavin Robinson, the DUP deputy leader, accused nationalists of trying “to manipulate the politics” and use “totemic” issues like Brexit.

Persuading voters to leap into something new – as Scottish nationalists discovered in 2014 – is not easy. It is likely to be even harder if a stable Labour government replaces Tory melodramas. Irish nationalists may find that Northern Ireland, for all its dysfunctions, is not quite dysfunctional enough to sway the non-aligned. They enjoy a relatively low cost of living, job opportunities and a vibrant arts scene. Six into 26 won’t go!” I saw that painted on a Belfast gable wall when I was a boy. Being a competitive little lad, I thought the graffiti author didn’t understand fractions. After all, six goes into 26 “four and a third times.” Of course, the statement was not about division, where it may have been correct according to certain schoolteachers, but about partition. Sinn Féin won the most seats in this year’s local elections but polls show strong support for the boycott among DUP voters.The most famous Ulster unionist slogan is “no surrender”, still cried at the annual August and December parades of the Apprentice Boys over Derry’s walls – or Londonderry’s. The “boys” are nowadays mostly somewhat-matured men. The slogan means no surrender either to Irish Catholics or to illegitimate British power. They feared an Irish republic, but they did not want partition. Ulster unionists preferred to leave Southern unionists behind rather than bolster them in a sovereign united Ireland. As retreating generals do, they cut their losses. For Mr Robinson, the real threat to the UK is the Northern Ireland Protocol and its successor agreement, the Windsor Framework. ‘Doomed Unionism’ I am just an occasional visitor to Ireland for holidays and academic conferences, but I try to be sensitive and informed as I travel and encounter scenes in the landscape that relate to the historical struggle to stay alive in a land which offered little comfort. Sadly, holiday travel has been brought to an end for us by cessation of the pet passport scheme with the EU. Sitting in his campaign office in North Belfast featuring a poster of the 1916 Proclamation of the Republic — the document marking the birth of Ireland’s modern struggle for independence — Sinn Féin’s director of elections, John Finucane, is cautiously optimistic about the party’s prospects.

Prof Padraig O’Malley, an international peacemaker specialising in divided societies, told The Telegraph that paramilitarism is “alive and well” and peace is fragile in Northern Ireland. The debate in the Republic matters because unification would need to be approved in a referendum in the South as well as the North. And it’s becoming increasingly evident that joining the two countries would be infinitely more complex than the stuff of Irish ballads sung in the bars of Boston.

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He also puts forward a number of suggestions for how to minimize the danger of either unionists or nationalists boycotting a constitutional plebiscite to make it appear illegitimate, and sets out a number of options for constitutional change that the author deems impossible or improbable: confederation, federation, repartition, joint sovereignty between London and Dublin, and Northern Irish independence. Eyeing up the various options, O’Leary proposes two models for reunification that he considers most viable. This way of thinking is increasingly popular among Irish civic nationalists, who see a Little Englander–powered Brexit as the foil to an Ireland that embodies the best virtues of twenty-first century liberal democracy. The Government of Ireland Act of 1920, the instrument of partition enacted by the Westminster Parliament, was the most enduring gerrymander of the last century. With some truculence, Ulster unionists accepted a six-county Northern Ireland, rather than one consisting of all nine counties of Ulster. Their local leaders had made a strategic decision. In the words of James Craig, Northern Ireland’s first Prime Minister, they would secure those counties they could control, and thereby create ‘a new and impregnable Pale’, behind which loyalists could securely regroup to maintain the Union with Great Britain.

In competition with this model, O’Leary poses what he calls an “integrated Ireland” — a more drastic process whereby Northern Ireland would be absorbed into a unitary Irish state. At present, the devolved model seems the most tolerable option for cultural Protestants, while nationalists and republicans will naturally prefer full integration. O’Leary argues, however, that “a future convergence” of the two models could develop, with devolutionary structures in a united Ireland “as a transitional arrangement, provided that it is fully intended to lead to an integrated Ireland.”

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Brendan O’Leary’s new book, published Sept. 1, 2022, looks at the possibility of Irish unification. (Image: Courtesy of Penguin, Sandycove). O’Leary and McGarry took issue with most of those perspectives, but sensibly insisted that there was no reason to present the subject itself as fundamentally unknowable — a cliché of much journalistic commentary: “Northern Ireland is complex, but its conflicts, and theories about its conflicts, are structured and explicable.” To provide what they saw as a more grounded and unbiased analysis of the region, they placed different ideological modes of thinking under the microscope, including the various attempts to analyze the conflict in Marxist terms. Prof Brendan O’Leary, in his book Making Sense of a United Ireland, has suggested a united Ireland could rejoin the Commonwealth, although that is deeply unpopular with Irish voters. Spectre of violence after reunification The Republic of Ireland is richer per head today by some significant margin than West Germany was in 1989. Northern Ireland is richer today with or without support from the British economy than East Germany was in 1989. German unification has taken place — it’s not perfect but it certainly is not a disaster.” Enter the unionists